NZD / USD Forex Technical Analysis – Choppy trade expected, but remains weak below 0.7009; Reinforce over .7027
The New Zealand dollar came under pressure Thursday morning by a stronger US dollar. The increase in bets that Friday’s US nonfarm wage report will exceed the current estimate of 700,000 is helping support the greenback. A sharp increase in jobs in the United States could bring the Federal Reserve closer to the end of its massive stimulus package.
At 09:23 GMT, the NZD / USD is trading at 0.6985, down 0.0004 or -0.05%.
On the economic news side, the number of new building permits approved in New Zealand fell 2.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis in May, from a 5.1% increase the month before, the data from Statistics New Zealand. Excluding apartments, apartments and retirement village units, the number of permits for new houses increased by 0.4%. Building permits were 17.3% higher than the same month a year ago.
In the US on Thursday, traders will have the opportunity to react to the latest report on Challenger’s job cuts, weekly jobless claims and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. The latter could be a market shift event.
Technical analysis of the daily swing chart
The main trend is downward on the daily swing chart. A trade through .6923 will reaffirm the downtrend. A move to .7095 will change the main trend upward.
The primary range is 0.6589 to 0.7465. The NZD / USD is currently trading inside its retracement zone between 0.7027 and 0.6924. This area controls the long term direction of the Forex pair.
The minor range is 0.6923 to 0.7095. Currently, the Forex pair is trading on the low side of its 50% level at 0.7009.
Another minor range is between 0.7243 and 0.6923. Its 50% level at .7083 is resistance. This was successfully tested on June 25.
The short-term range is 0.7316 to 0.6923. Its retracement area at 0.7120 to 0.7166 is another area of ââpotential resistance.
Technical forecasts of the daily swing chart
The direction of NZD / USD on Thursday will likely be determined by traders’ reaction to the minor pivot at 0.7009.
A sustained move below .7009 will indicate the presence of sellers. Elimination of yesterday’s low at 0.6965 will indicate that selling pressure is building. This could lead to a test of a support cluster at .6924 to .6923.
A sustained move above .7009 will signal the presence of buyers. This could lead to a test of 0.7027. Breaking this level will indicate that the buy is getting stronger with potential targets upward at 0.7083 and 0.7095.